A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
